The 1.5°C Paris Agreement temperature goal provides the benchmark for global climate action to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change. However, under current trajectories, overshooting (meaning the temporary exceedance of 1.5°C) the Paris temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. The impacts of such overshoot scenarios would be particularly consequential for vulnerable regions and systems. Here, even in the case of only a temporary exceedance of 1.5°C, thresholds of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts or adaptation limits may be exceeded. The PROVIDE project aims to deliver information on overshoot scenarios and respective impacts in the context of adaptation through an innovative web tool.
To address that challenge, PROVIDE will deliver highly innovative, integrative climate services that incorporate comprehensive information on impacts under overshoot pathways from the global to the regional and urban level, directly feeding into adaptation action. The project specifically aims to: 1) Produce global multi-scenario, multi-sectoral climate information which integrates and quantifies impacts across scales by means of novel climate and impact emulators; 2) Co-develop a generalisable overshoot proofing methodology for adaptation strategies to enhance adaptation action in response to overshoot risks; 3) Identify and prioritise overshoot adaptation needs in four highly complementary case study regions; 4) Integrate all project outcomes into a Climate Service Dashboard.
The PROVIDE Climate Services Dashboard will be an online platform providing detailed information on overshoot scenarios and expected impacts and their reversibility, with unique sectoral coverage including extreme events, biodiversity, cryosphere, sea-level rise, agriculture, economic damages, socio-economic vulnerabilities among others. The information includes global, national and city-level modelling results. The design and the presentation of the data will be co-developed together with stakeholders.An overshoot proofing module for adaptation planning will be made available for adaptation planners. The Overshoot Proofing Methodology will be co-developed together with a diverse group of stakeholders within the PROVIDE project.
The PROVIDE consortium is constituted of leading climate scientists as well as climate services purveyors, urban planners and adaptation experts embedded in selected case study regions (Arctic Fennoscandia – City of Bodø, Norway; Iberian Mediterranean – City of Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal; Indus Basin – City of Islamabad, Pakistan; Caribbean Small Islands – City of Nassau, The Bahamas) facilitating a continuous co-development process with a wide array of stakeholders.
The PROVIDE workplan is organized in seven work packages (WP):
WP1 & 2 are providing a multi-scenario framework and biophysical impact projections. The development of specific impact emulators will allow regional climate projects and the analysis of the (ir)reversibility of impacts under overshoot pathways. The results will feed into the PROVIDE Climate Services Dashboard developed in WP5. WP3 & 4 are focused on overshoot adaptation and policy and regional pertinent impacts of overshoot. The aim is to develop an overshoot proofing module that will be made available via the PROVIDE Climate Services Dashboard developed in WP5. In-depth work in four Iconic Regions is building on work in WP2 & 3 and focuses on one urban area within each region. The outcomes of WP1-4 are synthesized into the PROVIDE Climate Service Dashboard and its Regional and Overshoot Proofing Modules, which WP5 is developing. WP6 is coordinating all co-development, dissemination, communication, and exploitation activities including stakeholder engagement and WP7 includes the overall project management of PROVIDE.
BUUR Part of Sweco is active mainly in WP4 and participates in the assessment and identification of each Iconic City’s spatial structural profile and urban strategic structure (socio-economic and environmental). The work consists of the identification of the local spatial potential, opportunities and conditions for integrating future adaptation measures. Once adaptation scenarios are modelled and assessed, BUUR Part of Sweco will identify and provide a portfolio of overshoot adaptation strategies at Iconic Region or Iconic City scale, with a focus on the creation of multisector benefits. The impact on the spatial development will be explained in a graphical narrative, which is addressed to urban planners and policymakers. BUUR Part of Sweco participates also in WP5 for the co-development of the overshoot proofing module linked to adaptation planning platforms. We ensure that the climate services developed in this work package will respond to urban planners and policy makers’ needs.
You can find more info on the project on the PROVDE website.