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HORIZON 2020 LC-CLA-12-2020 on Advancing climate services
2021 — 2023

HORIZON 2020 LC-CLA-12-2020 on Advancing climate services

Paris Agreement Overshooting – Reversibility, Climate Impacts and Adaptation Needs

HORIZON 2020 LC-CLA-12-2020 on Advancing climate services
HORIZON 2020 LC-CLA-12-2020 on Advancing climate services

Overshooting the Paris Agreement temperature thresholds is a distinct possibility. The impacts of such overshoot scenarios would materialize globally, but be particularly consequential for vulnerable regions and systems for which thresholds of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts or adaptation limits may be exceeded. A full consideration of impacts and adaptation needs under overshoot scenarios thus requires a risk threshold perspective integrating emission pathways, earth system feedbacks, regional to local impacts, and context-specific vulnerabilities.

To address that challenge, PROVIDE will deliver highly innovative, integrative climate services that incorporate comprehensive information on impacts under overshoot pathways from the global to the regional and urban level, directly feeding into adaptation action. The project specifically aims to: 1) Produce global multi-scenario, multi-sectoral climate information which integrates and quantifies impacts across scales by means of novel climate and impact emulators; 2) Assess climate system uncertainties and feedbacks, and the (ir)reversibility of climate impacts to provide comprehensive risk assessments of overshooting; 3) Co-develop a generalizable overshoot proofing methodology for adaptation strategies to enhance adaptation action in response to overshoot risks; 4) Identify and prioritize overshoot adaptation needs in four highly complementary case study regions; 5) Integrate all project outcomes into a PROVIDE Climate Service Dashboard. The Dashboard will be designed to complement established climate service platforms and will be widely disseminated to foster uptake and sustainable use across all stakeholder groups addressed. The PROVIDE consortium comprises leading climate scientists and climate services purveyors, urban planners and adaptation experts embedded in selected case study regions facilitating a continuous co-development process with a wide array of stakeholders.

The role and activity of the cluster BUUR span over the whole WP4 (Iconic Regions and Cities). Assessment and identification of each Iconic City’s spatial structural profile and urban strategic structure (socio-economic and environmental): identify the local spatial potential, opportunities and conditions for integrating future adaptation measures. Co-design of multifunctional overshot risk and adaption scenarios, solutions and methodologies.


European Commission
Humboldt University (DE), ETH Zurich (CH), CICERO (NO), Imperial College London (UK), University Bern (CH), Tyndall Centre (UK), LSCE-IPSL (FR), University of Innsbruck (AT), Climate Analytics (DE), Cerfacs (FR), FCiencias.ID (PT), VITO (NL), Nordland Research Institute (NO), ARTTIC (FR)